Werner Bros. Offseason Guide and Notes: Part V

Wow, I just got done watching an amazing game 7 of the ALCS and get to see the Tampa Bay Rays punch their ticket to the World Series. It's tough not to like a team like Tampa, but it is hard to watch Matt Garza win the series MVP and wonder where the Twins would have been with him in the rotation and not Livan Hernandez. Here's to hoping Delmon continues to improve! Look for a MVB World Series Preview before Wednesday's game 1. Until then, the summary, the final installment of Brett's Offseason Guide. He'll look at the nine scenarios he described yesterday and try to predict what may happen. Please leave comments and let Brett know your thoughts to his guide.

Summary

Feel free to offer your own scenarios, and to give feedback on my reasoning here. Personally, if I could choose the scenarios to make the team I want…

Desirability
Scenario #9: Sign Dunn and Hudson, Trade for Beltre
Scenario #7: Sign Hudson, Trade for Beltre
Scenario #3: Pursue Top Young Player (at the cost of SP), maybe Chris Davis
Scenario #6: Sign Hudson and Blake
Scenario #4: Sign Hudson
Scenario #5: Sign Blake
Scenario #1: Do Nothing
Scenario #2: Go For Broke
Scenario #8: Sign Cabrera or someone else I don’t like

Predicted Likelihood:
Scenario #4: Sign Hudson
Scenario #7: Sign Hudson, Trade for Beltre
Scenario #1: Do Nothing
Scenario #6: Sign Hudson and Blake
Scenario #8: Sign Cabrera
Scenario #5: Sign Blake
Scenario #9: Sign Dunn and Hudson, Trade for Beltre
Scenario #3: Pursue Top Young Player (at the cost of SP), maybe Chris Davis
Scenario #2: Go For Broke

After doing these analyses, I would say that adding Hudson is probably our best single improvement, especially given that we can afford to platoon Buscher and Harris one more year if Valencia and/or Hughes can be good MLB hitters at 3B. But if we want to open up a spot in the OF/DH and trade Boof, then Beltre and the Mariners are a good match (but they should give us more than Beltre for Boof + either Kubel or Delmon… in fact, they should give us their #1 or #2 prospect, or a #5-10 prospect in their system and pay half of Beltre’s salary).

Garza Out, Young In

As mentioned, the first domino has fallen, and it couldn't be a more clear sign that more are yet to fall.

Yes Twins fans, in what was a move that us Twins fans are not used to after old GM Terry Ryan's reign of standing pat and sticking to the plan, the Twins completed a 6-player deal with the Tampa Bay Rays today that I guess could be described as a blockbuster.

THE DEAL

Twins trade: P, Matt Garza/SS, Jason Bartlett/P, Eduardo Morlan

Twins receive: OF, Delmon Young/SS, Brendan Harris/OF Jason Pridie




THE REVIEW

My initial reaction... I like the deal!

I like the Twins being in the headlines, I like the excitement, but let's analyze the deal a bit closer. The main component is Young for Garza. In Garza, the Twins lose a POTENTIAL stud and I emphasize potential. Garza has nasty stuff, great minor league numbers, and rocketed through the Twins minor leagues. BUT... he is a young pitcher who could blow out his arm, become the next "sure thing" like former Twins No. 1 pick Adam Johnson who lasted no more than 9 games in the majors, or simply become a solid No. 3 starter.

I like the deal because I truly think Young WILL be a stud. Former No.1 overall pick in 2003 and younger brother of Nationals' 1B Dimitri Young, Delmon Young is a 22-year old 5 tool player and future All-Star. In his first full season, where the durable Young played in all 162 games, Young batted .288 with 13 homeruns and 93 RBI's. Certainly, no All-Star numbers, but for 10 years younger and roughly 1/15 the cost, I'd say just fine numbers to replace Torii Hunter. With those numbers Young actually was the runner-up in the American League Rookie of the Year award.

Known most for his infamous 50-game suspension due to tossing his bat at an umpire during his stint in Triple-A, Young has some questions about his make-up but was an 18-year old No. 1 pick with lots of money and is believed to have grown up. Plus, Garza has had his own run-ins with Manager Ron Gardenhire. My only knock on Young is his plate discipline. Last year, Young walked only 26 times while striking out 127. Hopefully, his maturation as a hitter along with the coaching and emphasis on patient hitting from the Twins will serve Young well.

The second facet of the deal is the swapping of shortstops. The Twins surprisingly swap 28-year old starting SS, Jason Bartlett, for 27-year old SS, Brendan Harris. In Bartlett, you have a very solid defensive player with great speed and an adequate bat. In Harris, you have a bat with a little more pop and some power potential, but an average at best defensive player with average speed. This part of the deal is a clear sign to me of more trades to come. I would be shocked to see Harris as the Twins opening day shortstop, but he could be a great backup middle infielder or split some time with Nick Punto and Alexi Casilla at 2B and possibly 3B. Maybe trading Bartlett opens a spot for Jose Reyes in a Santana deal....maybe?

The 3rd and final part of the deal is the one receiving the most criticism from Twins fans. The original deal would have sent Twins pitcher Juan Rincon, which would have gotten his $4 million salary of the books and eliminated the concern over some arm troubles he has had. However, those arm concerns seemed great enough to the Rays that the Twins were forced to add minor league reliever, 21-year old Eduardo Morlan. Rincon is clearly a bigger name, but my research shows that Morlan is regarded as a stud prospect and could have been a potential replacement for Joe Nathan in the future. I don't know a lot about Morlan, but this a part of a deal that you can look back in 5 years and say Eduardo who? or... why did we ever get rid of that guy!?!?

No matter your feelings on the deal, it is a big and bold move for new GM Bill Smith and in my opinion, I can't get over the thought of a middle of the order consisting of Mauer, Young, Morneau, and Cuddyer!

La Velle E. Neal III, gives his thoughts with a glimpse of what is next to come.

Rob Neyer of ESPN asks, so who won?

I'd love to hear how you feel about the deal? Good/Bad/Ugly?