Twins 4 Holliday!

As a blogger, I feel it is my duty to sometimes say what people are afraid to say or don't think about. Because bloggers are "journalists" with no editorial or contractual commitments we have the luxury to freely speak our mind and say whatever ridiculousness we want. And with the spirit of election season I'm going to start my campaign: Twins 4 (Matt) Holliday! Pretty ridiculous huh?

This past June during the season I wrote a post about why I thought the Twins should trade for Adrian Beltre of the Seattle Mariners. At the time this move seemed pretty ridiculous to other Twins bloggers and fans but to me really seemed to make sense. This potential trade was perhaps out of the normal realm for the Twins but seemed to make sense both as a good fit for the team and a trade with true possibility. Today the Beltre rumor is regarded as a true possibility for the Twins.

Now I'm not trying to say I told you so or that I have all the answers because I also thought that the Detroit Tigers would defeat the New York Mets this year in the World Series. But today I'm straying away from a rumor that is both a good fit for the team and a plausible reality. This is one of those rumors that although may be very far from plausible is a great fit for the team and makes you wonder... what if? It's one of those ridiculous rumors.

TWINS 4 HOLLIDAY!

Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post writes that the Colorado Rockies have stated to rival executives that Matt Holliday is available. Before you start thinking we won't need another outfielder, why would we want Holliday? Think about why we would want Holliday!

The 28-year old leftfielder is entering the prime of his career. He's a righthanded power bat (which is exactly what we need) who hit .321 with 25 homeruns and 88 RBIs in 2008. The 6'4'' 235 lb slugger even stole 28 bases last year. That would put him 2nd in SB behind Carlos Gomez for the Twins. Plus, imagine the right hander hitting in the cleanup role, sandwiched between fellow All-Stars Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Dangerous!

So as I argue, Holliday would be a great fit for this team that could be the missing piece with a healthy bullpen to take this team to the World Series. Now what would we have to give up to get him (besides money, we'll get to that!)...

In my head I'd like to believe a package of D.Young/D. Span/G.Perkins would be enough. Perhaps, a Boof or a P.Humber would have to be included because the Rockies desperately need arms. This may seem like a lot, but Holliday would be three times more valuable than Young in leftfield and I personally think given Span's minor league track record there may never be a better time to trade him. We would definitely miss his leadoff ability and his defense, but Holliday is an upgrade defensively over Young and Cuddyer in right isn't too shabby. Throw the speedy Gomez, who caught more balls than anyone last year, in between Holliday and Cuddyer and the Twins have a very solid outfield defense. As Brett noted in his Matt Cain rumors, I think Perkins would be expendable and could be replaced with another arm.

However, the Denver Post says that Colorado is looking for an elite pitcher in return. We may not have "an elite pitcher" to trade but I don't think the Rockies will get that from anyone because they aren't going to trade Holliday to San Diego for Jake Peavy. So another possible package could be K.Slowey/D.Young/P.Humber. The Rockies would get two young arms and a great arm in Slowey (although his flyball rate could be dangerous in Coors Field) and get a young back with potential in Delmon. Slowey would be a big loss for the Twins but we could either move Boof back into the rotation or would still have an extra outfielder in Span or Cuddyer to move for pitching or middle infield help.

Here comes the part of the deal that makes this rumor ridiculous. If you think my trade package to the Rockies seems impossible and that Colorado will never take it, you must realize that Matt Holliday is entering his final year of his contract and if traded will probably require a multi year deal of roughly 5-years for $90-100 million. Do the Twins have that kind of money??? I believe they do, but it's a question of whether or not they will spend it. The deal would beat Morneau's franchise record 6-year of $80 million. But what a better way to make a run for the title in 2009 and enter the new ballpark in 2010 built around a core of Mauer, Morneau, Holliday, Nathan, Baker, Liriano, Blackburn, Gomez, and Casilla.

So as I said, because I have no editorial or contractual commitments I'm going to start this ridiculous (but smart) rumor and get those little ideas planted in your head. Just think about that potential lineup next year? And on November 4th vote: Twins 4 Holliday!

Friday Thoughts

Here are my thoughts for Friday, October 24:

• Bill James, a pioneer in statistical analysis and a baseball mastermind, ranked the Minnesota Twins #1 in terms of youth talent within the organization. Certainly an item of note! James ranked Joe Mauer, Delmon Young, Justin Morneau, Kevin Slowey, Scott Baker, Carlos Gomez, Nick Blackburn, Jason Kubel, Denard Span, and Glen Perkins in the top 150 young players. "The average team has five players in the top 150; the Twins have 10," James said.


• In an announcement that is close to home for me, the Twins announced that Daktronics Inc., based out of my hometown Brookings, SD, will construct the new scorebard for Target Field set to open in 2010. The board will be the 4th biggest in Major League Baseball. You got to love the idea of a 101 x 57 foot HDTV!


• Matt Garza gets the start in game 3 of the World Series. He's looked great during these playoffs, but I feel that for every great game he pitches on the national stage Bill Smith and Twins fans feel more and more compelled to trade Delmon Young. I admit being a fan of the Cain rumors, you can read my comments below on Brett's post, but you got to have a short term memory as a general manager and as a fan. Because don't get me started on David Ortiz!


• The Seattle Mariners announced their new GM, Jack Zuduriencik, who is known for his great drafts and scouting success. In this article, Rob Neyer, uses the Minnesota Twins as a great example of what the Mariners could be with a new approach. In contrast to the Seattle organization Neyer says, "What happens if you take the Twins' scouting success and add $40 million to the budget?" Good question Rob??? I do think this new rebuilding, youth emphasis in Seattle may make it easier for the Twins to pry Adrian Beltre out of Seattle.

Werner Bros. Offseason Guide and Notes: Part II

In Part II of Brett's Offseason Guide he introduces his personal method of evaluating offseason acquisitions and comparing the gain/loss from player to player. Maybe Bill Smith should pay attention to this...

I’ve been trying to develop a very simple acronym for player evaluation (as a free agent signing, and to a lesser extent a trade). I call it CRAP. Each of these variables can be weighted based on team needs (making it specific to what a team might need at particular positions, or might have as constraints on salary). For instance, the Twins have contract/salary limitations far greater than the Yankees (who are often just operating on the RAP acronym), and while the Twins need a 3B or SS, the Yankees have those already (see A-Rod and Jeter) and would prefer starting pitching.

C = Contract Expectations (this includes both years and salary/year, along with bonuses/options)
R = Risk (injury risk is most important, but attitude is key, esp. for Twins: see Dukes or Bradley)
A = Age (players peak in their late 20s & often regress afterward, in addition to increasing cost)
P = Production (or Performance if you factor in defense—I use OPS as a good indicator here)

So this gives us CRAP, and whether you want to just use pluses and minuses, or positive and negative numbers, or even weights and positive or negative numbers, you can come up with a fair indication of whether your favorite team should sign a particular player. For instance, I was looking at free agents with high HR production in 2008 (on MLBTR), and I rated some hitters using CRAP.

Tex’s CRAP = -9 +6 +0 +9 = +6
Manny’s CRAP = -6 –5 –4 +10 = -5
Bradley’s CRAP = +2 –9 –1 +10 = +2
Dunn’s CRAP = -5 +4 +0 +8 = +7

Because all of these players could potentially DH, and the Twins could upgrade at DH (by trading at least one of, and likely two of Delmon, Kubel, Cuddyer, Gomez, or Span), I think all of these players are legitimate Twins for 2009. They range in terms of contract (lengthy and expensive for Mark Teixeira to short and expensive for Bradley given his risk), in terms of risk (Bradley is very risky for both injuries and attitude, and Dunn/Tex is less risky), in terms of age (Manny is getting old, but most are around or just past their likely peak years), and in terms of production (but given that I was just looking at very productive players, they’re quite homogeneous).

So, let’s look again at the Twins trade targets, using CRAP as a starting point. I then offer some additional insight into what a particular player’s presence might mean to the Twins (trading current players to open up spots or acquire players currently under contract, moving players into other positions, etc.)


Orlando Cabrera (Free Agent SS) RHB 721 (713 / 744) 705 (688 / 754)

CRAP = -15
C = +2 (if the Twins could get him for $30 over 3 yrs, but drops fast beyond that)
R = -5 (mostly on attitude rather than on injury—don’t like his attitude at all)
A = -7 (34 years old, a bit much for a starting SS with little chance to play other positions)
P = -5 (not that great on offense, defense is generally pretty good)

Other Notes: It could be that I’m being more harsh on the OC because of his attitude and batting, but if the Twins want someone with Cabrera’s production, why not sign Punto (better OPS in ’08 and as good in ’06, though perhaps not as consistent overall) who is better in the club house and as good at defense. I think this would be a major mistake on the part of Bill Smith, and I wouldn’t think it would be tough for him to see that. It also was very surprising to me that JoeC seemed optimistic and HowardS called him the people’s choice (though Sinker later redeemed himself by looking into Cabrera’s personality). See Furcal note under Hudson.


Adrian Beltre (1 year left on contract 3B) RHB 786 (779 / 806) 784 (704 / 994)

CRAP = +16
C = +5 (one year contract, while expensive is short—caution: see trades below)
R = +2 (little injury risk in one year)
A = 0 (29 years old, but having him for only one year )
P = +9 (great numbers, especially against LHP, and Gold Glove caliber defense)

Other Notes: The nice things about Beltre are he’s a power-hitting RHB with great defense we would only need to have him for a year (at $12million), and it would be a contract year before Free Agency (meaning he should produce, and that we would get draft picks if we lost him, likely as a Type A Free Agent). The difficult thing is that the Mariners will surely require a back of the rotation starter (MLB ready) for him, if not more (for only one year of Beltre). I’m guessing they would trade Beltre for Perkins/Boof/Buscher, but I may be off. If so, I’d do it (unless I could get Chris Davis). I’d guess that Beltre could give Morneau a rest at 1B with better results than Lamb in 2008.


JJ Hardy (Arb Elig Brewers SS) RHB 775 (716 / 938) 821 (764 / 977)

CRAP = +17 (SS) or +13 (3B)
C = +2 (under team control, but in arbitration years, would likely want to give him 4yr contract)
R = +3 (missed most of 2006 with an ankle injury, but solid aside from that)
A = +4 (26 years old)
P = +8 as a SS, or +4 as a 3B

Other Notes: He’s a RHB that can hit HRs and drive in runs. Probably the most important thing about Hardy is that he would be a good SS for another year or two, though may not be quite as good defensively as Everett or Punto, but could easily move to 3B any time and still has enough offensive production that it wouldn’t matter. The same cannot be said for Cabrera. Additionally, though Hardy’s price is starting to increase, he remains a good option from now until the end of his arbitration years, whether we want to buy out any of his free agent years with a contract or not. The downside of Hardy (like Beltre and Davis) is that he will require trades.


Orlando Hudson (Free Agent 2B) SWIT 779 (805 / 703) 817 (862 / 720)

CRAP = +4 or +2 depending on contract expectations
C = 0 (if we could get him at $32 over 4 yrs) or -2 (if $40 / 4yrs or $30 / 3yrs)
R = -2 (plays ~140 games/yr except for 2008 when he had season-ending wrist surgery)
A = -2 (31 years old)
P = +8 (good production for a middle IF, and Gold Glove defense)

Other Notes: If we pick Hudson up, it would be for his defense up the middle, along with good offense for a 2B. However, this would mean moving Casilla to SS (possibly to compete with Punto or others), which may work (it is Casilla’s natural position, but not one he has played much lately). The nice thing about Hudson beyond his production and defense is that we do not have to give up any trades for him. I could probably add Rafael Furcal to the list of middle infielders (much better SS option than Orlando Cabrera), but he’ll be out of our price range I think.


Casey Blake (Free Agent 3B) RHB 781 (765 / 823) 808 (803 / 823)

CRAP = -1
C = -3 (will be paying him free agent money, but he won’t be expensive for a FA)
R = +5 (seems good for 150 games, has been a Twin before, knows the ALC)
A = -6 (35 years old)
P = +3 (decent production)

Other Notes: I confess to not knowing what to say about Casey Blake except that he’s a good option and likely the kind of signing the Twins would do in the past (maybe slightly better). He is my lowest pick ask a 3B option of those addressed here. However, in a year when 3B options are limited, Casey Blake will have a number of suitors, and he’s a good player. I’d put a maximum offer of 2 years and $18 million and be comfortable with getting him for 2 years and $12million.

Here’s where it gets interesting…
Chris Davis (young Rangers 3B) LHB 952 in Minors 880 (866 / 916)

CRAP = +27
C = +10 (cheapest option available, under team control for cheap for a while)
R = +1 (Young, but unknown… if only I were a scout)
A = +9 (23 years old)
P = +7 (still unknown, but if his minor league numbers are any indication, along with his short MLB season, he should be quite productive).

Other Notes: Davis would be the least proven player out of those highlighted here—the youngest, with only 2/3 of a season in the majors. He’s another LHB to go with Mauer and Morneau, but he’s similar in age to Gomez and Delmon, would be cheap and available for a number of years, and has the potential to hit like a superstar (OPS of .952 in minors compares to Mauer’s .830 and Morneau’s .902). Even if he can’t stay at 3B forever and might need to be moved in a year or two to 1B (pushing Morneau to DH), a corner OF (following Cuddyer), or DH (pushing Kubel out of the picture), the Twins have options. The biggest problem is that according to some Rangers fans’ view, Davis is untouchable, which means trading for him would cost the Twins dearly (maybe Blackburn/Perkins, Boof, Duensing, Pridie, Robertson, and Valencia, maybe even a better package, perhaps with both Blackburn and Perkins, and maybe Boof and Valencia). But the good news is that the Twins and Rangers are trading partners made in heaven (Rangers with great and plentiful batting and troublesome pitching, the Twins with great and plentiful pitching and batting in need of a boost).


Adam Dunn (Free Agent Corner OF/DH) LHB 899 (931 / 833) 899 (951 / 773)

CRAP = +13
C = -6 (maybe -7 given he’s a free agent)
R = +7 (quiet, maybe not a vocal leader, but plays 155+ games/year)
A = +2 (29 years old)
P = +10 (out of the options we have to improve the team’s offense, Dunn is by far the best)

Other Notes: Dunn is going to require a contract much bigger than the Twins have given before, at least on par with Morneau and perhaps even more given that he’s a free agent around (or just passing) his prime. Dunn consistently hits 40 HRs (and I do mean consistently) and has 100 Runs Batted In. While he would be another LHB to go with Mauer and Morneau, his splits are good enough that it wouldn’t matter (he’s as good of a hitter as Morneau). He would offer the kind of protection to Morneau that Twins fans could only dream of in 2008. Landing him would likely mean trading Kubel and perhaps Delmon (to open up an OF/DH spot or two), but this could be addressed in other ways. He would likely add $16-18million per year to our payroll for 4-5 years (similar to Morneau). If we could get him for $64 over 4 yrs, he would be a steal I think. I might try for $75 over 5 years. Basically, if the Twins could move him to the DH (and part time OF) spot while keeping the young cheap guys (and Cuddyer) in the outfield, we could have the best of both worlds in production and defense.

Putting these options together, we have to make sure we don’t end up:
Getting Orlando Cabrera (I don’t like him)
Getting both Dunn and Davis (both great hitters, but both LHB, crowding the corners)
Getting both Hudson and Hardy (we should be able to cover one middle IF internally)
Getting Davis and Blake (both 3B) or Davis and Beltre, etc.

CRAP Summary
First of all, what do you think of the CRAP rating system? Is it helpful to you in making decisions about trades and free agents? There are two alternative formulations I’m considering. One is that you use CRAP for free agents (who require contracts) and TRAP for trade targets (where you have to give up players from your system). The second is a way of combining the two to make CRAPT. It is the same as CRAP but adds in T for Trades (players you’d lose to get the target player). In a way, this does even out some of the desirability of trade targets over Free Agents, and it might end up working.

T = Trade Equations (never positive unless you can get rid of another bad contract)
Davis = -9
Hardy = -5
Beltre = -6
Dunn = 0
Hudson = 0
Blake = 0
Cabrera = 0

CRAP Ranking (as done by me, but you should use the system and rank them yourselves):
Chris Davis +27
JJ Hardy +17 (SS) or +13 (3B)
Adrian Beltre +16
Adam Dunn +13
Orlando Hudson +4
Casey Blake -1
Orlando Cabrera -15

CRAPT Ranking
Chris Davis +18
Adam Dunn +13
JJ Hardy +12 (SS) or +8 (3B)
Adrian Beltre +10
Orlando Hudson +4
Casey Blake -1
Orlando Cabrera -15

Just as importantly as thinking of these CRAPT ratings is to think how another team views our guys and their ratings. This is a reason why Cuddyer, who is a good hitter (in ’06 and ’07) with a reputation for good defense (mostly just his arm) is a difficult player for the Twins to trade after we gave him a bigger contract than he was worth (at least so far—if he returns to ’06 levels in ’09, he’ll improve the contract’s worth).

How do your rankings compare? Who else do you include? Where would someone like Manny fit in? I’m guessing he’ll get a big contract over 4-5 years, that he’s an attitude risk (perhaps injury also, though he’s stayed in good health), he’s old, but he can hit. He might work at DH, but I would rather put my money on Adam Dunn.

Maybe I'm Not Crazy

I'm not calling it a done deal yet or proclaiming myself right, BUT.... check out what I read on ESPN.com's Rumor Central...

The Minnesota Twins have reportedly had discussions internally about possibly acquiring Adrian Beltre from the Mariners, writes Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Christensen reports the Twins have not yet contacted the Mariners. Minnesota is not historically known for making big trades in July, but the Star-Tribune reports the the Twins scouts are ready if the need arises.

In case you forgot, I made a bold suggestion that the Twins should trade for the Mariners thirdbaseman. The trade is probably as unlikely today as it was when I wrote about it in June, but I couldn't help to be a bit surprised and rather proud of my conjecture. I do still believe Beltre would fill a gap both offensively and defensively for the Twins.

Not only may one Mariner (Beltre) be on the Twins radar, but with the recent release of Seattle DH Richie Sexson, I'm curious what playoff teams may be looking to add a veteran bat. Not quite sure if the guy is the right fit for the Twins. He's certainly a more attractive name than Craig Monroe, but pretty much the same type of player.

Time will only tell if GM Bill Smith makes a move for this potential playoff contender in the few weeks leading up to the July 31st trade deadline.

Call me crazy... Twins should trade for Beltre

Yesterday's firing of Seattle GM Bill Bavasi got me thinking... the Mariners, with the worst record in baseball, are entering rebuilding mode. Virtually anyone on the roster not named Ichiro is for the taking. Maybe it's because I'm sick of watching Mike Lamb take horrible at bats, maybe it's because I think it's because I belive this 2008 Twins roster is only a player or two from winning the division, but I think trading for Mariner thirdbaseman Adrian Beltre would be a risky, yet potentially rewarding move that could be a difference maker in the central division.

Now I'll try to convince you. In 2004, Adrian Beltre had his career year for the Los Angeles Dodgers. It was a contract year and the young slugger hit .334 with 48 homeruns and 121 RBIs finishing 2nd in the MVP race behind Barry Bonds. It was a classic example of a fluke season in a contract year and the Seattle Mariners fell victim. That offseason the Mariners signed Beltre to an awful, 5-year $64 million deal. Beltre has never matched his '04 numbers or even come close.

So you may be asking, why would the Twins want a player like this? Well, for starters Seattle would be willing to give Beltre for roughly 30 cents on the dollar. They want to unload him, get rid of his bad contract, and start over. Yes I admit, the reason this deal will never happen is because the Twins won't want to take the $6.5 million Beltre is owed for the rest of the season and the $13 million he is owed next year, but what if they took chance. What if, we trade our own bad thirdbasmen Mike Lamb and his 2-year $6.6 million deal and a AA prospect. I truly belive that's all it would take to pry Beltre away from the Mariners. The remaining year and a half on Lamb's contract off the books would cover what the Twins would owe Beltre for 2008, and then we'd be taking a chance on his $13 million in 2009. I think Seattle would be so willing to part with Beltre we could even get them to pay part of Beltre's contract.

Besides the money, do I want the Twins to pull the trigger on some big named player with one good season? Well, although his '04 number were a fluke/performance enhanced, Beltre has alwasy been a pretty solid player. This year his batting average is suffering at .225 but he does have 14 HRs, 30 RBIs, and 34 runs scored. His homerun total would be leading the Twins and his offensive production would greatly outweigh that of Mike Lamb or any other Twins thirdbaseman. Beltre also brings a Gold Glove which he won last year at 3B. Despite his poor batting average this year, Beltre is a lifetime .269 hitter who has hit .276, .268, and .255 over the past three seasons since joining the Seattle Mariners. Over those same three seasons Beltre hit 26 HRs with 99 RBIs in '07, 25 HRs with 89 RBIs in '06, and 19 HRs with 87 RBIs. Beltre's current homerun pace would actually eclipse his past numbers as he is on pace for 33 homeruns.


Certainly, Beltre isn't as big of a player as his contract is, but I see this acquistion as a high risk/very high reward situation. I know this is the last type of deal the Minnesota Twins make, but part of me seems like it makes sense. This trade doesn't fit into the Twins 2010 projected plans, but Beltre's contract would be off the books after the '09 season. Plus, it's not like Lamb was the long-term solution at 3B either. The Twins have no forseeable quick solution at 3B in the minor leagues and I think Beltre could fill a huge void this year at 3B and in the lineup. Also, as hard as it is to believe since Beltre has been in the majors since 1998, the man is only 29 years old. Next year, he'll be 30 years old and in his contract year. He'll certainly never get a deal again like he did from the Mariners, but he will be hungry and looking to prove himself... who knows what type of numbers he could put up for Minnesota after leaving a pitcher's park in Seattle to the hitter friendly Metrodome.

I'm pretty confident that this random thought of a deal that came to my head last night will never happen, or even cross GM Bill Smith's mind, but it certainly makes me wonder what if... don't you???