Werner Bros. Offseason Guide and Notes: Part IV

Now Part IV is where things really get interesting. Based on CRAP and the Twins offseason riches, Brett creates 9 possible 2009 Twins lineups. Check out and leave your opinions...

Scenarios for the 2008-9 Offseason
For each of these I tried to make it clear about what a 25-man roster would be to start the season. There are combinations of these along with a number of others I didn’t consider (and which are probably much more likely than what I address).

What is important is that the Twins do something to decrease the bottleneck in the outfield and starting pitching positions. They should be looking for a RHBs who can hit LHP, who can protect Morneau (and still hit RHP), who play SS or 3B, and play good defense. If they don’t improve their numbers against LHP and their slugging, they are unlikely to do as well in 2009 as 2008 (with a chance of injury to a key SP, Mauer, or Morneau), not to mention a likely drop in average with RISP.


Here are some options to build your lineup:
Lineup Options  -  OBP  -  SLG  -  OPS (Career)  =  OBP  -  SLG  -  OPS (2008)
Span (OF)   -  387  -  432  -  819   =  387  -  432  -  819
Mauer (C)   -  399  -  457  -  856   =  413  -  451  -  864
Morneau (1B)   -  348  -  498  -  846   =  374  -  499  -  873
Young (OF)   -  326  -  413  -  739  =   336  -  405  -  741
Cuddyer (OF)  -  344  - 441  -  785  =  Only 249ABs  330  -  369  -  699
Casilla (2B)  -  310  -  336  -  646  =  333  -  374  -  707
Punto (SS)   -  319  -  332  -  651  =  344  -  382  -  726
Gomez (CF)   -  295  -  350  -  645  =  296  -  360  -  656
Kubel (DH)   -  326  -  445  -  771  =  335  -  471  -  806

Tolbert (IF)  -  322  -  389  -  711  =  Only 113ABs  322  -  389  -  711
Harris (IF)   -  330  -  408  -  738  =  327  -  394  -  721
Buscher (3B)  -  335  -  373  -  708  =  340  -  390  -  730
Redmond (C)  -  348  -  365  -  713  =  Only 129ABs -  321  -  333  -  654

Beltre (3B)  -  327  -  459  -  786  =  327  -  457  -  784
Dunn (DH)  -  381  -  518  -  899  =  386  -  513  -  889
Hudson (2B)  -  346  -  433  -  779 =  367  -  450  -  817
Hardy (SS)  -  329  -  446  -  775  =   343  -  478  -  821
Blake (3B)  -  334  -  447  -  781  =  345  -  463  -  808
Cabrera (SS)  -  322  -  399  -  721  =  334 -  371  - 705
Prince (DH)  -  370  -  533  -  903  =  372  -  507  -  879
Furcal (SS)  -  352  -  412  -  764  = Only 143ABs  -  439  -  573 - 1012

Scenario #1: Do Nothing.

We had a good team in 2008, and while we might not be improving dramatically for 2009, we will at least not have Livan starting every 5th game. In other words, we’ll have a healthy Liriano, Cuddyer, and Neshek to start the season. If all of them play as well as they could (Neshek and Cuddyer like 2006, 2007, Liriano like 2006), and everyone else plays as well as in 2008, we could easily compete for the ALC (even if, as Gleeman says, 89 wins gets us 3rd in the ALC).


Scenario 1 Lineup
Span (OF)
Casilla (2B)
Mauer (C)
Morneau (1B)
Cuddyer/Young (OF)
Kubel (DH)
Buscher/Harris (3B)
Punto (SS)
Gomez (CF)
Bench: Young, Harris, Redmond

Rotation
Baker
Liriano
Slowey
Blackburn
Perkins

Mulvey/Duensing (AAA)
Swarzak (AAA)

Relief
Nathan (Closer)
Neshek/Mijares (Setup)
Crain/Guerrier (Key)
Breslow (LOOGY/Long)
Humber/Boof (Long)


Scenario #2: Go for broke.

Trade Perkins, Kubel, Humber, Young, Boof, and Pridie for Beltre and Hardy, and sign Dunn. This raises our payroll significantly, but not outside what the team can handle (especially given the savings from the last couple years), and we improve our lineup enough that teams would fear us. A lot. So could we get both Hardy and Beltre for the players listed above, and what would our team look like if we did?

I would try to trade Young and/or Boof (and prospect/Humber) to the Mariners for Beltre. I’m guessing they would jump on Delmon (a high-upside OF, whose age and OPS hint at Delmon producing like Beltre over his career, which could make this trade a mistake for the Twins). We’d probably be able to get another player thrown in if we gave them Delmon, and certainly a good one if we gave them both Boof and Young. Summary: Young + Humber for Beltre OR Young + Boof for Beltre and SP prospect.

Then I would try to trade Perkins and Humber (and maybe Kubel) to Milwaukee for Hardy. They get an MLB SP (Perkins is young, cheap, and did pretty well for a rookie, what they want) and they could get a corner OF with a lot of power from the left side in case they trade Prince (or a trade chip with another AL team who wants a DH/OF since Hart and Braun fill their corner OF pretty well). In fact, we might be able to get Milwaukee to make the trade for Perkins (or Blackburn) straight up or with low-level prospects included (a safety measure in all trades in case the centerpieces don’t pan out). Summary: (2A) Perkins + Humber for Hardy OR (2B) Perkins + Kubel for Hardy and high-level prospect OR (2C) Blackburn + Robertson + Humber + Kubel + Parmelee for Hardy + Prince. Then Prince could be our 40 HR-hitting DH, and we wouldn’t need to worry about getting Dunn.

So yes, I think that the trading part is do-able. I think the Twins have already improved their lineup immensely with two established RHBs rather than Delmon and Kubel. If we didn’t do the crazy trade involving Hardy and Prince, I’d think about signing Dunn (remember this scenario is going for broke). Dunn would help a ton (especially if we do trade Kubel). If we are not including Kubel in the Milwaukee deal, then the need for Dunn is much lower. But if possible, I would trade Kubel and sign Dunn. The other nice thing about this scenario is that we keep Beltre for one year, and then we have Valencia/Hughes ready for 3B in 2010, and we get the 2 (or maybe 1) draft picks from Beltre walking. Or we could move Hardy to 3B in favor of another SS. There would be options.


Scenario 2 Lineup
Span (LF)
Mauer (C)
Dunn/Kubel/Prince (DH)
Morneau (1B)
Beltre (3B)
Cuddyer (RF)
Hardy (SS)
Casilla (2B)
Gomez (CF)

PH: Redmond, Buscher,
Punto/Tolbert, Harris

Rotation
Baker
Liriano
Slowey
Blackburn
Boof/Mulvey
AAA: Duensing
AAA: Swarzak

Relief
Nathan (Closer)
Neshek/Mijares (Setup)
Crain/Guerrier (Key)
Breslow (LOOGY/Long)
Humber (Long)


Scenario #3: Pursue Chris Davis (or someone similar: young, high OPS, fills a need).

I may sound like I’m really tied to Chris Davis, and I guess maybe I am. But really, all I’d like is a great young hitter who can play 3B or SS, someone who isn’t just cheap with high upside or a proven veteran middle infielder (we’ll get to that in #4). I’d like a hitter who can play a position the Twins need, and can protect Morneau if he bats fifth in the order (or 3rd with Mauer 2nd and Cuddyer 5th). To get Chris Davis, I expect the Twins would need to trade at least Boof and Perkins/Blackburn, maybe Humber (as another possible MLB pitcher) and Valencia/Hughes (whomever Texas likes better as a future 3B after Blaylock is gone). I think this is a big deal kind of trade, and if we did it, I wouldn’t expect any other deals from us this summer. It would fill our hole at 3B this year and for at least one more before Davis might have to get moved (to OF, DH, 1B). By that time, the non-traded Valencia/Hughes would be at 3B.


Scenario 3 Lineup
Span (OF)
Mauer (C)
Davis (3B)
Morneau (1B)
Cuddyer (OF)
Kubel (DH)
Casilla (2B)
Punto (SS)
Gomez (CF)

Bench: Redmond, Delmon, Buscher, Harris

Rotation
Baker
Liriano
Slowey
Blackburn
Mulvey/Swarzak

AAA: Swarzak

Relief
Nathan (Closer)
Neshek/Mijares (Setup)
Crain/Guerrier (Key)
Breslow (LOOGY/Long)
Duensing (Long)


Scenario #4: Pursue Veteran Middle Infielder (hopefully Hudson, not Cabrera)

If we decide to pursue a veteran middle infielder as our main offseason move, I do hope it’s Orlando Hudson. He is coming off an injury, but could be a good 2B for us, with some power and good defense (which we need). If we did this, it would mean moving Casilla to SS and keeping Punto around in case Casilla doesn’t adjust well. But this seems like a legitimate and likely scenario.


Scenario 4 Lineup
Span (OF)
Hudson (2B)
Mauer (C)
Morneau (1B)
Cuddyer/Young (OF)
Kubel (DH)
Buscher/Harris (3B)
Casilla/Punto (SS)
Gomez (CF)

Bench
Young, Redmond,
Harris, Punto

Rotation
Baker
Liriano
Slowey
Blackburn
Perkins

Mulvey/Duensing (AAA)
Swarzak (AAA)

Relief
Nathan (Closer)
Neshek/Mijares (Setup)
Crain/Guerrier (Key)
Breslow (LOOGY/Long)
Humber/Boof (Long)
Scenario #5: Pursue Casey Blake, and
Scenario #6: Pursue Hudson and Blake

You can guess what these two would look like. Since they don’t involve trading, it’s pretty clear how they would change our team. I still think the Twins sign Punto in either case as a swing-man. I don’t think they trust Tolbert to be as good as Punto defensively, even though Tolbert would be cheaper.

Scenario #7: Sign Hudson and Trade for Beltre

I actually see this happening because I think the Twins want more year with Hughes/Valencia in the minors. They can afford to (and want to) trade Boof, Humber, and maybe a high-level prospect in order to get a year of Beltre and the draft picks when he leaves via Free Agency.

Scenario #7 Lineup
Span (OF)
Hudson (2B)
Mauer (C)
Morneau (1B)
Beltre (3B)
Kubel (DH)
Cuddyer/Young (OF)
Casilla/Punto (SS)
Gomez (CF)

I actually like how this lineup looks, and if I had to go for an offseason with less going on (and less risk) than scenarios #2 and #3, then I would choose this one. It gives our lineup balance, prevents too much pressure from being put on Morneau/Mauer (who had to carry this team in 2008) and Cuddyer/Young (who were responsible for not giving enough RHB protection to M&M). If we could find a place to trade Kubel, then I’d still like to sign Dunn, but that might be asking too much.


Scenario #8 (this would be awful): Sign Orlando Cabrera

Please don’t do this, Bill Smith. Please. So I’ll end with…

Scenario #9: Trade for Beltre and Sign Dunn and Hudson

Under this scenario, the Twins would trade Boof and Kubel to the Mariners for Beltre and a high-level prospect. They would then sign Hudson to play 2B and Adam Dunn to be the DH and let Gomez, Span, Cuddyer, and Young split time in the outfield. Starting pitching and relief would be pretty similar to most of the above (wouldn’t lose any of the five starters who ended 2008).

Scenario #8 Lineup OBP/ SLG/ OPS (Career)  =  OBP/ SLG/ OPS (2008)
Span (OF) 387/432/ 819  =  387/ 432/ 819
Hudson (2B) 346/433/ 779  =  367/ 450/ 817
Mauer (C) 399/457/ 856  =  413/451/ 864
Morneau (1B) 348/498/ 846  =  374/499/ 873
Beltre (3B) 327/ 459/ 786  =  327/ 457/ 784
Dunn (DH) 381/ 518/ 899  =  386/ 513/ 889
Young/Cuddyer (OF) 326/ 413/ 739 (DY) 344/ 441/ 785 (MC)
Casilla (SS) 310/ 336/ 646  =  333/ 374/ 707
Gomez (CF) 295/ 350/ 645  =  296/ 360/ 656

I think that lineup would be amazing. And it’s quite possible. It would also allow moving Span to the bottom part of the order if he starts 2009 with a lower OBP. The Dunn part might not be probable, but quite possible. I’d be fine with scenario #7 (without Dunn), but our production would take a hit (but we’d save a lot of money). Possible differences you can mix and match:

Kubel (DH) 326 445 771 335 471 806
Hudson (2B) 346 433 779 367 450 817
Hardy (SS) 329 446 775 343 478 821
Blake (3B) 334 447 781 345 463 808
Cabrera (SS) 322 399 721 334 371 705
Prince (DH) 370 533 903 372 507 879
Furcal (SS) 352 412 764 Only 143ABs 439 573 1012

For example… Check out Going for Broke #2C (Getting Prince, Hardy, and Beltre)

Scenario #2C Lineup OBP SLG OPS (Career) OBP SLG OPS (2008)
Mauer (C) 399 457 856 413 451 864
Prince (DH) 370 533 903 372 507 879
Morneau (1B) 348 498 846 374 499 873
Beltre (3B) 327 459 786 327 457 784
Span (OF) 387 432 819 387 432 819
Hardy (SS) 329 446 775 343 478 821
Cuddyer (OF) 344 441 785 Only 249ABs 330 369 699
Casilla (2B) 310 336 646 333 374 707
Gomez (CF) 295 350 645 296 360 656