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Monday, October 20, 2008

Werner Bros. Offseason Guide and Notes: Part V

Wow, I just got done watching an amazing game 7 of the ALCS and get to see the Tampa Bay Rays punch their ticket to the World Series. It's tough not to like a team like Tampa, but it is hard to watch Matt Garza win the series MVP and wonder where the Twins would have been with him in the rotation and not Livan Hernandez. Here's to hoping Delmon continues to improve! Look for a MVB World Series Preview before Wednesday's game 1. Until then, the summary, the final installment of Brett's Offseason Guide. He'll look at the nine scenarios he described yesterday and try to predict what may happen. Please leave comments and let Brett know your thoughts to his guide.

Summary

Feel free to offer your own scenarios, and to give feedback on my reasoning here. Personally, if I could choose the scenarios to make the team I want…

Desirability
Scenario #9: Sign Dunn and Hudson, Trade for Beltre
Scenario #7: Sign Hudson, Trade for Beltre
Scenario #3: Pursue Top Young Player (at the cost of SP), maybe Chris Davis
Scenario #6: Sign Hudson and Blake
Scenario #4: Sign Hudson
Scenario #5: Sign Blake
Scenario #1: Do Nothing
Scenario #2: Go For Broke
Scenario #8: Sign Cabrera or someone else I don’t like

Predicted Likelihood:
Scenario #4: Sign Hudson
Scenario #7: Sign Hudson, Trade for Beltre
Scenario #1: Do Nothing
Scenario #6: Sign Hudson and Blake
Scenario #8: Sign Cabrera
Scenario #5: Sign Blake
Scenario #9: Sign Dunn and Hudson, Trade for Beltre
Scenario #3: Pursue Top Young Player (at the cost of SP), maybe Chris Davis
Scenario #2: Go For Broke

After doing these analyses, I would say that adding Hudson is probably our best single improvement, especially given that we can afford to platoon Buscher and Harris one more year if Valencia and/or Hughes can be good MLB hitters at 3B. But if we want to open up a spot in the OF/DH and trade Boof, then Beltre and the Mariners are a good match (but they should give us more than Beltre for Boof + either Kubel or Delmon… in fact, they should give us their #1 or #2 prospect, or a #5-10 prospect in their system and pay half of Beltre’s salary).

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Great piece Brett! Very interesting work!